This study examines the probability for sediment entrainment to bed load and the probability for the threshold condition of sediment to be in suspension. The theoretical analysis is based on a simple one-sided exponential distribution of probability function. The probability distributions are derived from a truncated universal Gram-Charlier series expansion based on the exponential or Laplace-type distributions for turbulent velocity fluctuations. The key criterion of sediment entrainment is the hydrodynamic lift acting on a solitary particle to exceed submerged weight of the particle. In this way, a simple probability function for sediment entrainment to bed load in terms of Shields parameter containing the lift coefficient is obtained. It was found that the value of lift coefficient as 0.15 satisfactorily fitted the probability function versus Shields parameter curve with the experimental data. On the other hand, the key criterion of the threshold of sediment suspension is the fluctuations of the vertical velocity component to exceed terminal fall velocity of the particle. The probability function for the threshold of a sediment particle to be in suspension is obtained in terms of Shields parameter as a function of shear Reynolds number. Curves for different values of probabilities are drawn in respect to a Shields diagram. For the value of probability 0.05, the threshold of sediment suspension is indicated. The prediction curves for the threshold of sediment suspension are proposed in terms of Rouse number versus Shields parameter and also Shields parameter versus shear Reynolds number. © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.