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Impact of Climate Change on Drought Frequency over India
, Vimal Mishra
Published in Book Climate Change and Water Resources in India Publisher: Ministry of {\ldots}
2018
   
Issue: December 2018
Pages: 117 - 129
Abstract
Historical observations suggest that severe drought frequency has been increasing in the recent decades over India. In the future climate, significant variability and change in monsoon rainfall and temperature would further affect the future drought conditions. Here, we analysed data from five Global Climate Models (GCMs) that participated in the coupled model intercomparison project-5 (CMIP5) to estimate the changes in drought conditions under the warming climate in India. Our analysis show more frequent droughts in the warming climate in near (2011-2040), mid (2041-2070) and end (2071-2100) period using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) whereas the drought projections based on just precipitation (Standardized Precipitation Index: SPI) show a decrease in the drought frequency in the 21st century. The change in drought frequency is projected to increase by more than two-three severe droughts per decade over the majority of India using SPEI in the end period. The increased warming resulted in an increased atmospheric water demand (potential evapotranspiration: PET) in the region, which is reflected in the increased drought frequency. The change in area under severe drought is projected to increase by 150% at the end of the 21st century using SPEI against the reference period 1971-2000. Overall, we conclude that the drought frequency of severe drought is projected to increase in warmer and wetter future climate in India and the increased frequency of droughts can largely attributed to increased PET due to anthropogenic warming. This chapter highlights that despite the projected increase in the monsoon season precipitation, the risk of frequent droughts in India is higher under the warming climate, which will have implications to water management in the future.
About the journal
PublisherBook Climate Change and Water Resources in India Publisher: Ministry of {\ldots}